China's commercial vehicle market plunged out of the plight of SARS in the second half of 2003, out of the troubles of “post-SARSâ€, and in the spring of 2004, it finally entered a new stage of steady recovery. The commercial vehicle market has experienced cyclical development Since the reform and opening up, China's commercial vehicle market has seen four volatility cycles, and there have been four expansion periods (also known as strong sales period), with the peaks appearing in 1979, 1985, 1988, and 1992 respectively; There were 4 systolic periods (also called slow-moving periods), and their troughs appeared in 1981, 1986, 1989-1990, and 1994-98. The first four expansions of commercial vehicles are in the period of shortage of economic sellers, and the shortage of products is tight commodities. Since the fourth contraction period in 1994, the supply of commercial vehicles has exceeded market demand, showing the characteristics of the buyer’s market and becoming a meager commodity. After years of tracking and observation, the author found that the development of the commercial vehicle market is closely related to the macroeconomic trend of the national economy. This is because commercial vehicles are mainly used as means of production. Even private cars are mostly used for commercial purposes; the properties of production vehicles of commercial vehicles determine that it is directly affected by the GDP growth rate of the national economy. During the expansion period, the annual growth rate of sales and sales of commercial vehicles is far greater than that of the national economy. I call this phenomenon the "expansion effect." During the contraction period, the growth rate of commercial vehicles is far less than the growth rate of GDP. It is also called Shrinkage effect." In order to facilitate the assessment of the trend of the auto market, the author set a new concept of Ks value for commercial vehicle expansion coefficient. This value is the ratio of the growth rate of commercial vehicles to the growth rate of GDP of the national economy (since the overall automobile market expansion coefficient is K), during the expansion period, the Ks value is a positive value greater than 1; during the contraction period, the Ks value is Negative value, or a positive value less than 1. The commercial vehicle market entered the fifth expansion period to review China’s commercial vehicle market. It recovered steadily from the bottom of the valley in 1999 with an annual output of 1,264,900 units, an annual growth rate of 12.48%, an expansion coefficient Ks of 1.75, and an annual commercial vehicle production of 1,494,400 in 2000. Vehicles, annual growth rate of 15.77%, the expansion coefficient Ks is 1.97 (over the same period the overall auto market K value of only 1.63). The above data shows that the commercial vehicle market is the first to enter the “expansion period†of the fifth expansion period. This was related to the macroeconomic background of the country’s implementation of “expanding domestic demand and strengthening infrastructure constructionâ€. At that time, the commercial vehicle market was heating up while the car market was still not very booming. In 2002, China’s national economy continued to rise. The GDP growth rate rebounded to 8%, and the commercial vehicle market was booming. The annual output reached 2,511,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 32.4%. The accounting expansion coefficient Ks was 4.05, which exceeded the previous 4 peaks. (Ks=2.08-3.35). Therefore, it can be determined that the commercial vehicle market entered the fifth “peak expansion period†in 2002. Last year, the commercial vehicle market was operating at a low level from January to June 2003 (although there had been SARS), the national economic development momentum was good, and the GDP growth rate reached 8.2%. The auto market was operating normally: 2,076,600 vehicles were produced in January-June, an increase of 34.13% year-on-year, and the accounting K value was 4.16. Compared with 2002 (a growth rate of 38.49%, K=4.81), the growth rate and K value decreased. However, it is still a high-speed growth range. However, the commercial vehicle market is very unsatisfactory: 1,181,100 vehicles were produced in January-June, a year-on-year increase of 6.57%. The accounting expansion coefficient Ks=0.8 fell into the “shrinkage effect†range of less than 1, which is unprecedented since 1999. Happening. From January to June, compared with the same period of the previous year, Chinese goods, micro-cargoes, and Chinese customers dropped by 16% to 29% (other models still increase). Why does this happen? SARS is an important factor. The GDP growth rate decreased from 9.9% in the first quarter to 6.7% in the second quarter, which was greatly affected by the rapid decline in GDP (commercial vehicle growth rate dropped sharply from 32.62% in the first quarter to 20% in the second quarter). Second, one-half of commercial vehicles are purchased through loans and repayments are made on operating profits. It is reported that after the SARS rectification of the car loan, banks and insurance companies suspended consumer vehicle commercial vehicle loans and guarantee insurance business, but also seriously affect the commercial vehicle market, a factor. In addition, due to collision laws and regulations, flat-top minivans and trucks have been directly hit, and a few companies have seen that cars are good for cars. In 2003, the macro economy reached a new low level in recent years, with a GDP growth rate of 9.1%. From July to December, the commercial vehicle market rebounded (38.25% rebounded in the third quarter and fell to 10.48% in the fourth quarter). However, compared with 2002, the operating parameters of the commercial vehicle market still have a large gap. In 2003, commercial vehicles produced 2.4244 million units, a growth rate of 12.72%, and the Ks value was only 1.4 (Ks 4.02 in 2002), which was still at a low level. Running situation. The overall commercial vehicle market is in "low run", but individual vehicles are in better condition. According to statistics, the growth rates of light buses and light trucks were 32.45% and 24.72% respectively, of which passenger buses were better than trucks. The development trend of commercial vehicle market outlook How to estimate the trend of the auto market in 2004? First, it depends on the macroeconomic situation of the national economy. The GDP growth rate in 2003 was 9.1%. If the growth rate of GDP can be guaranteed in 2004, the macro-control will be appropriate, and the commercial vehicle market will likely rebound slowly. The National Bureau of Statistics believes that this year's economic growth will not necessarily reach a high level of 9.1% as it did last year. China’s economic development this year will continue to progress towards a healthy, coordinated and sustainable development based on maintaining a fairly high speed. . The survey results of relevant agencies on macroeconomic research institutions show that the GDP growth rate will remain around 7-8.6% this year. This means that economic growth may have a slight slowing trend. In the first quarter of this year, the GDP growth rate was 9.7%, and the production of commercial vehicles was 722,700, an increase of 16.19% year-on-year, with Ks=1.67 (GDP growth rate was 9.9% in the fourth quarter of 2003, and production of commercial vehicles was 6.10.9 million, which was a year-on-year increase. 10.48%, Ks=1.06). In the first quarter, the growth rate of trucks was 19%, the growth rate of passenger cars was 11%, and the commercial vehicle market showed a steady upward trend. The good development of the national economy has led to a gradual recovery in the volume of cargo and passenger traffic. The substantial increase in total logistics volume (up by 27% in 2003) brings new hope to the development of commercial vehicles in the new year.
Review of Volatility Cycles in Commercial Vehicle Markets: Steady Recovery in Volatility
China's commercial vehicle market plunged out of the plight of SARS in the second half of 2003, out of the troubles of “post-SARSâ€, and in the spring of 2004, it finally entered a new stage of steady recovery. The commercial vehicle market has experienced cyclical development Since the reform and opening up, China's commercial vehicle market has seen four volatility cycles, and there have been four expansion periods (also known as strong sales period), with the peaks appearing in 1979, 1985, 1988, and 1992 respectively; There were 4 systolic periods (also called slow-moving periods), and their troughs appeared in 1981, 1986, 1989-1990, and 1994-98. The first four expansions of commercial vehicles are in the period of shortage of economic sellers, and the shortage of products is tight commodities. Since the fourth contraction period in 1994, the supply of commercial vehicles has exceeded market demand, showing the characteristics of the buyer’s market and becoming a meager commodity. After years of tracking and observation, the author found that the development of the commercial vehicle market is closely related to the macroeconomic trend of the national economy. This is because commercial vehicles are mainly used as means of production. Even private cars are mostly used for commercial purposes; the properties of production vehicles of commercial vehicles determine that it is directly affected by the GDP growth rate of the national economy. During the expansion period, the annual growth rate of sales and sales of commercial vehicles is far greater than that of the national economy. I call this phenomenon the "expansion effect." During the contraction period, the growth rate of commercial vehicles is far less than the growth rate of GDP. It is also called Shrinkage effect." In order to facilitate the assessment of the trend of the auto market, the author set a new concept of Ks value for commercial vehicle expansion coefficient. This value is the ratio of the growth rate of commercial vehicles to the growth rate of GDP of the national economy (since the overall automobile market expansion coefficient is K), during the expansion period, the Ks value is a positive value greater than 1; during the contraction period, the Ks value is Negative value, or a positive value less than 1. The commercial vehicle market entered the fifth expansion period to review China’s commercial vehicle market. It recovered steadily from the bottom of the valley in 1999 with an annual output of 1,264,900 units, an annual growth rate of 12.48%, an expansion coefficient Ks of 1.75, and an annual commercial vehicle production of 1,494,400 in 2000. Vehicles, annual growth rate of 15.77%, the expansion coefficient Ks is 1.97 (over the same period the overall auto market K value of only 1.63). The above data shows that the commercial vehicle market is the first to enter the “expansion period†of the fifth expansion period. This was related to the macroeconomic background of the country’s implementation of “expanding domestic demand and strengthening infrastructure constructionâ€. At that time, the commercial vehicle market was heating up while the car market was still not very booming. In 2002, China’s national economy continued to rise. The GDP growth rate rebounded to 8%, and the commercial vehicle market was booming. The annual output reached 2,511,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 32.4%. The accounting expansion coefficient Ks was 4.05, which exceeded the previous 4 peaks. (Ks=2.08-3.35). Therefore, it can be determined that the commercial vehicle market entered the fifth “peak expansion period†in 2002. Last year, the commercial vehicle market was operating at a low level from January to June 2003 (although there had been SARS), the national economic development momentum was good, and the GDP growth rate reached 8.2%. The auto market was operating normally: 2,076,600 vehicles were produced in January-June, an increase of 34.13% year-on-year, and the accounting K value was 4.16. Compared with 2002 (a growth rate of 38.49%, K=4.81), the growth rate and K value decreased. However, it is still a high-speed growth range. However, the commercial vehicle market is very unsatisfactory: 1,181,100 vehicles were produced in January-June, a year-on-year increase of 6.57%. The accounting expansion coefficient Ks=0.8 fell into the “shrinkage effect†range of less than 1, which is unprecedented since 1999. Happening. From January to June, compared with the same period of the previous year, Chinese goods, micro-cargoes, and Chinese customers dropped by 16% to 29% (other models still increase). Why does this happen? SARS is an important factor. The GDP growth rate decreased from 9.9% in the first quarter to 6.7% in the second quarter, which was greatly affected by the rapid decline in GDP (commercial vehicle growth rate dropped sharply from 32.62% in the first quarter to 20% in the second quarter). Second, one-half of commercial vehicles are purchased through loans and repayments are made on operating profits. It is reported that after the SARS rectification of the car loan, banks and insurance companies suspended consumer vehicle commercial vehicle loans and guarantee insurance business, but also seriously affect the commercial vehicle market, a factor. In addition, due to collision laws and regulations, flat-top minivans and trucks have been directly hit, and a few companies have seen that cars are good for cars. In 2003, the macro economy reached a new low level in recent years, with a GDP growth rate of 9.1%. From July to December, the commercial vehicle market rebounded (38.25% rebounded in the third quarter and fell to 10.48% in the fourth quarter). However, compared with 2002, the operating parameters of the commercial vehicle market still have a large gap. In 2003, commercial vehicles produced 2.4244 million units, a growth rate of 12.72%, and the Ks value was only 1.4 (Ks 4.02 in 2002), which was still at a low level. Running situation. The overall commercial vehicle market is in "low run", but individual vehicles are in better condition. According to statistics, the growth rates of light buses and light trucks were 32.45% and 24.72% respectively, of which passenger buses were better than trucks. The development trend of commercial vehicle market outlook How to estimate the trend of the auto market in 2004? First, it depends on the macroeconomic situation of the national economy. The GDP growth rate in 2003 was 9.1%. If the growth rate of GDP can be guaranteed in 2004, the macro-control will be appropriate, and the commercial vehicle market will likely rebound slowly. The National Bureau of Statistics believes that this year's economic growth will not necessarily reach a high level of 9.1% as it did last year. China’s economic development this year will continue to progress towards a healthy, coordinated and sustainable development based on maintaining a fairly high speed. . The survey results of relevant agencies on macroeconomic research institutions show that the GDP growth rate will remain around 7-8.6% this year. This means that economic growth may have a slight slowing trend. In the first quarter of this year, the GDP growth rate was 9.7%, and the production of commercial vehicles was 722,700, an increase of 16.19% year-on-year, with Ks=1.67 (GDP growth rate was 9.9% in the fourth quarter of 2003, and production of commercial vehicles was 6.10.9 million, which was a year-on-year increase. 10.48%, Ks=1.06). In the first quarter, the growth rate of trucks was 19%, the growth rate of passenger cars was 11%, and the commercial vehicle market showed a steady upward trend. The good development of the national economy has led to a gradual recovery in the volume of cargo and passenger traffic. The substantial increase in total logistics volume (up by 27% in 2003) brings new hope to the development of commercial vehicles in the new year.