The "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan" issued by the State Council in 2012 proposes that the average fuel consumption of passenger vehicles should drop to 6.9 liters/100 kilometers by 2015 and 5 liters/100 kilometers by 2020. In the past six years, the average fuel consumption of domestic passenger cars has only dropped by 1.3%. According to the data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the average fuel consumption per 100 kilometers of domestic passenger cars last year was 7.38 liters, which means that the average fuel consumption in the next seven years needs to drop by more than 30%.
Dong Yang, secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, called on Chinese automakers to lag behind Europe in traditional automotive technology such as engines, gearboxes, and lightweight. Only by widely applying hybrid technology can the fuel consumption target of 100 liters and 5 liters in 2020 be achieved.
Hybrid technology, represented by the Toyota Prius, does not require a complete charging facility to achieve power recovery and electrical energy storage in a gasoline-driven mode to achieve significant fuel economy.
“Hybrid technology can achieve a cost increase of 5% to 10% and fuel economy of 10% to 20% if it is used in large quantities.†Dong Yang said that the results of the China Automobile Coordination Research show that the domestic industry is far behind in hybrid power. Foreign countries, especially in the deep mixing technology, have large gaps. In addition, only two or three auto companies can mass-produce the car start-stop system, and the market application is not optimistic.
Zhao Fuquan, dean of the Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy Research Institute of Tsinghua University, reminded that hybrid power, as a cross-technology for open source and throttling, is not a transitional technology. It has a lot of room for adjustment and is a reasonable choice to meet the 2020 fuel consumption regulations.
From January to September this year, China's auto sales exceeded 15.88 million, an increase of 12.7%. "The growth rate far exceeds the forecast at the beginning of the year, and there is no suspense in the annual production and sales of 20 million vehicles." However, the industry is worried that the rapid growth of market demand for energy and the environment may hinder the steady development of the automotive industry. If the annual growth rate is 10%, China will only break through the 30 million mark after 10 years of passenger car sales, and the risk of oil import dependence will be significantly enlarged.
Compared with Europe, China's fuel consumption target set in 2020 is not high. Dong Yang analyzed that the EU is implementing a limit of 120 grams of carbon dioxide emissions per kilometer by 2015, and is discussing the limit of 95 grams of carbon dioxide emissions per kilometer by 2020. In terms of conversion, the carbon dioxide emissions of 5 liters per 100 kilometers of fuel consumption are 117 grams per kilometer, so China's 2020 fuel consumption limit target is only slightly stricter than the EU's 2015 target.
Generally, the miniaturization of vehicles is an important way to reduce the average fuel consumption of automobiles. In Europe and Japan, cars are popular. However, in the Chinese auto market, which has just been upgraded, the change in vehicle displacement is contrary to the environmental protection goal. Xu Changming, director of the Information Resource Development Department of the National Information Center, revealed that the proportion of luxury cars in the domestic auto market has increased rapidly, from 4% in 2007 to around 8% today; the proportion of SUV models has increased to 21.5%, the larger the scale. The more popular SUV models are sold.
Although the market prospects for new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, are enticing, the promotion and popularization are difficult, and the slow construction of charging facilities has become a worldwide problem. Therefore, the realization of energy saving of traditional vehicles through technical means is a more realistic approach.
Xu Changming said that high-efficiency internal combustion engine technology can achieve good fuel-saving purposes, but the cost is high, and hybrid technology can save fuel by waste energy recovery and engine fuel consumption under the condition of high fuel consumption. An important means of supporting the rapid growth of vehicle ownership under the energy dilemma.
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