2015 Transportation Industry Investment Strategy

Domestic and international macro environment outlook. It is expected that the global economic policy environment in 2015 will remain loose. The economic growth rate is slightly better than that in 2014. The annual growth rate is 3.6%, slightly higher than the 0.3 percentage point in 2014. The U.S. economic recovery is still continuing and will continue to play a role in developed economies. As the leading role, with the continuous improvement in the level of inflation and the unemployment rate, the time for interest rate increase will gradually come, and the eurozone and Japan stimulus policies will continue to be introduced. It is expected that China's economy will continue its normal development at a moderate rate in 2015, and its annual economic growth will be adjusted downward to 7% or below at 7.3% this year. Accelerating reforms is still the only bargaining chip to boost market confidence.

Secondary market forecast. Based on the "market-valued listed companies will be the scarcity of the stock market, a new generation of leaders collectively governing the country's economic development ideas to enhance the value of large-capital companies such as construction, finance, and investment, and cause the Chinese people and even the people of the world to pay attention and recognition; with the registration system and delisting With the implementation of the system, the valuation of high-risk, high-risk GEM faces greater valuation pressure; Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect opened and large-scale incremental funds entered, demonstrating the recognition of overseas incremental funds for the logic of China’s new generation of leadership collective reforms. The structural adjustment and transformation will not be completed within a short period of time." Judging that the large-cap value of blue-chips next year is still the focus of investment in the secondary market, there are still relatively strong investment opportunities for the listed companies that have large-capital and medium-disc blue-chip intensive arrangements. However, the influx of overseas incremental funds increased the amount of game A shares, and the increase in A-shares since July 2014 was more than 1,000 points in the short-term, and the long-term bullish trend of A-shares is inevitable.

Focus on the Belt and Road, state-owned enterprise reforms, and Disney theme investments. 2015 will be the year for further development of the Belt and Road. With the implementation of the One Belt One Road Strategy, the strategy for the free trade area that will be implemented on the basis of the periphery will be further advanced. Shipping and stocks centered on shipping and ports will benefit from the whole process of the economic integration of the Belt and Road, which is an important opportunity for the shipping ports to become bigger and stronger. The shipping section will benefit from the state-owned enterprise reform. In the reform of reform of the delivery company next year, it will focus on the reform of state-owned enterprises in the highway industry, the reform of state-owned enterprises in shipping companies, and the reform of state-owned enterprises in port enterprises. The completion and commissioning of Disneyland at the end of 2015 is expected to increase the investment opportunities of Shanghai's local shipping stocks, focusing on shipping stocks and other stocks.

Pay attention to the investment logic of each sub-segment. Transforming and diversified development and reform of state-owned enterprises to enhance the value of highway investment; the One Belt and One Road, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration, the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the development of the free trade zone to enhance the value of port investment; focus on the railway sector in parallel with the price increase and reform, and pay attention to next year Cargo price increase for half a year, focusing on the expected increase in passenger price increase next year. Taking the opportunity of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative and focusing on the strategic cooperation in resource integration within the shipping system, we will pay attention to the new shipping pattern, new demands, and new breakthroughs, and pay particular attention to more urgent state-owned enterprise reforms.

Investment risk: The domestic economic growth rate is lower than the expected risk; oil prices continue to fall, leading to economic deflation risks; market style switch risk; rising short-term shock risk caused by the uptrend of the KLCI; long-term optimistic about the trend of wide shocks increased risk.