The oil price cuts the window or delays to the end of the month

October 10 is another time window for domestic oil price adjustment. However, as the international crude oil price change rate has not touched the red line of domestic oil price adjustments, the price of gasoline and diesel that people are looking for is “struck”. According to industry forecasts, the price cut window may not be opened until the end of October. However, although the price cuts at the level of the National Development and Reform Commission “strangled”, in order to sprint the annual sales task, the price reduction of the Beijing Gas Station has been increased, and the price of gas stations has reached 310, accounting for nearly 30% of the total gas stations in the capital.

In the first half of the year, there was no price adjustment at the beginning of the month. On October 10, the last time the domestic oil price adjustment just passed 22 working days, according to the domestic oil price adjustment mechanism, the time condition for price adjustment has been met, but another price adjustment condition - "International crude oil price changes The rate reached plus or minus 4% but failed to meet the target. Recently, the fluctuation of international oil prices is relatively large. Monitoring by several social monitoring agencies shows that as of October 8th, the international crude oil price change rate was only around -2%. Therefore, people hope that the price of refined oil will fall.

This is also the first time in six months that there has been no price adjustment for refined oil in one month. Prior to this, on May 10, June 9, July 11, August 10 and September 11, there was a price adjustment for refined oil once a month. In the last two occasions, the prices of gasoline and diesel all increased. People originally expected gasoline and diesel prices to come down in early October.

Analysis of prices at least until the end of 10 <br> <br> now, when the oil price adjustment, see "face" rate of change in the international price of crude oil up. The industry has predicted that the opening of the domestic oil price cut-off window will at least wait until the end of October, and even the entire October is hopeless.

Treasure Island oil product analyst Han Jingyuan said that if the international oil price decline in late October deepens, to about 85-87 US dollars / barrel, the international crude oil price change rate may meet the conditions of falling 4% on October 25 or so, "but There are too many influencing factors in international crude oil price changes, so it is difficult to deduce a specific time window." Long Bin Information analyst Si Bin also believes that the time for all the price adjustment conditions is met "may be at the end of October."

However, Hu Huichun, an information analyst, believes that it is also possible that there will be no hope of reducing prices throughout October. "Although from the perspective of the United States and the global economy, especially before the US election, the US government will certainly take certain measures to reduce oil prices. The recent international oil prices have also shown a trend of shock and decline under pressure from bad news, but in view of the current situation The proportion of international crude oil's 22-day moving average price in the medium-to-high price will gradually increase, which will drag down the rate of change in international crude oil prices. Therefore, it is expected that the rate of change in October will hardly fall below 4%, and the domestic oil price reduction window will therefore be closed."

Extend every opportunity to re-launch the price adjustment mechanism <br> <br> yesterday, the "oil price adjustment mechanism is expected to improve after the launch," the news once again seen in the media, a similar message came from time to time will be early in 2010 onwards.

In this regard, industry insiders have expressed that it is indeed a good opportunity to introduce a new price adjustment mechanism, because international crude oil began to enter a period of adjustment after the end of the big ups and downs, when the international oil price is relatively stable, the introduction of new mechanisms, can make Domestic gasoline and diesel prices will not change frequently in the short term, giving the market time to adapt.

Zhongyu Information analyst Wang Jintao believes that the U.S. election will run through the fourth quarter, and that the U.S. economy will be dominated by stability. The price fluctuations of commodities such as international crude oil will be very limited. This will promote China's refined oil products. The price adjustment mechanism is a very good opportunity. “In fact, the reform direction of the domestic oil price adjustment mechanism has basically taken shape. If the domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be lowered as scheduled in late October or early November, I think the new price adjustment mechanism is related to gasoline and diesel prices. There is still a possibility of downgrading simultaneously."

Chen Qing, Analyst of the Zhuo Chuang Information Refined Oil Industry Chain, added that from the domestic perspective, the CPI has been kept below 3% since May, indicating that inflation is controllable; due to the overall weak economy, the demand for refined oil products has not increased significantly. The market fundamentals are relatively moderate, and these factors are conducive to the introduction of a new price adjustment mechanism.

It is understood that the reform direction of the refined oil price adjustment mechanism is to “shorten the price adjustment cycle, improve the price adjustment operation method, and improve the transparency of the operation of the mechanism.” Even though the new mechanism is introduced, the adjustment of domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be more frequent, but for the people, “ The situation of rising or falling more or less will be expected to improve. Under the current pricing mechanism for refined oil products, the target of “up to 4%” is low, while the target of “down to 4%” is a high value, which objectively leads to “more or less decline” in oil price adjustment. .

Visit the capital market on their own gas stations to cut prices to compete for customers <br> <br> although the NDRC price level "stranded", but after the November holiday small peak demand, in the face of market demand is not busy, the capital of gas stations have cut prices on their own.

Statistics from Yuke.com show that at present, the number of gas stations in Beijing that have reduced prices for promotion has reached 310, which is the highest since the beginning of this year, accounting for 26% of the total number of gas stations in the city. The scale of the promotion of gas stations in Beijing has always been large and small. In recent years, due to the fact that the gas stations of the Sinopec Group resolutely withdrew from the direct price reduction warfare, there were no more than 300 gas station gas price reductions in the past. However, this time, the price of gas stations, including a large number of Sinopec, PetroChina gas stations, price cuts, including self-help fuel discount, direct price cuts, price cuts in the range of 0.01-0.6 yuan / liter.

Yesterday, reporters found that interviews along the Fifth Ring Road in the Northeast, PetroChina, Total, Shell and many other gas stations are competing for price promotions. The two PetroChina gas stations along the two-way street of the North Wuhuan near Wangjing Science and Technology Park have a 0.2 yuan/litre promotion. The prices of privately-owned gas stations are numerous, and the price cuts are relatively large. The No. 92 gasoline at the Coral Refueling Station has a direct price cut of 0.5 yuan/liter.

The gas station said that the reason why everyone has lowered their prices is to ensure passenger flow. Since the beginning of this year, the overall market demand has not been very strong, coupled with Beijing's shaken car purchases, limited lines, and soaring parking fees. Many gas stations need to work hard in the second half of the year to complete their annual sales tasks.

>> background wholesale and retail price difference expanded to provide space for the price <br> <br> gas station has been able to cut prices on their own, because of the expansion of gasoline and diesel wholesale prices fell and the wholesale and retail price difference.

The recent decline in international crude oil prices, traders bearish outlook, have sold early inventory to reduce losses. Since September 20, the domestic refined oil market has experienced a continuous decline, and the current price difference between gasoline and diesel has reached 300 yuan/ton. Consultant analyst Hu Huichun said that this year's domestic economic growth continued to decline, inhibiting the end of refined oil demand, the sales of most major units such as Sinopec and PetroChina in the first three quarters were poor, resulting in a significant increase in sales pressure in the fourth quarter. Under the pressure of many negative factors, it is expected that the domestic refined oil market will continue to decline in the latter part of the period, and there will be no fundamental improvement in the shipping of wholesale markets.

According to data provided by Longzhong Information, on October 9, the average price of domestic gasoline and diesel wholesales fell again compared with the previous day. The average price of gasoline wholesale was RMB 10019/ton, which was RMB 5/ton lower than the previous working day; The price was RMB 8,598/ton, which was RMB 30/ton lower than the previous working day. Compared with the last domestic refined oil price adjustment day (September 11), the wholesale price of gasoline rose by 36 yuan/ton; the wholesale price of diesel dropped by 59 yuan/ton.