According to a recent report by Dow Jones, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest five-year global energy outlook, highlighting a significant rise in biofuel production worldwide. The report attributes this growth to rising oil prices and stricter environmental regulations across countries. In 2005, global biofuel output reached 650,000 barrels per day—more than four times higher than in 2000. Projections suggest that by 2011, this figure could climb to 1.2 million barrels per day, nearly doubling current levels.
The IEA also noted that from 2006 to 2011, new ethanol and biodiesel capacity is expected to add up to 1 million barrels per day globally. However, some projects remain uncertain due to policy and economic factors. Despite these challenges, the agency remains confident that biofuel production will expand rapidly in the coming years.
Brazil, the U.S., and the EU are expected to lead in new biofuel capacity, while Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand are set to grow quickly. These regions may become key suppliers, with the EU and the U.S. as major export markets. As a result, Brazil and the U.S. may see their dominance in the global ethanol market decline. Their combined share is expected to drop from 92% in 2005 to 78% by 2008. Meanwhile, the EU’s biodiesel output is projected to more than double from 2005 levels, and ethanol production is expected to rise sharply—from 14,000 to 71,000 barrels per day.
The IEA also addressed the complex relationship between biofuels, food prices, and oil prices. It stated that ethanol from sugarcane becomes competitive only when oil prices exceed $40 per barrel, while biodiesel from animal fat requires oil prices above $60. For other feedstocks, the threshold is even higher—over $70 per barrel. Unless production costs fall significantly, many biofuels will continue to depend on government support.
Furthermore, the IEA highlighted that second-generation biofuels, such as cellulosic ethanol, are unlikely to make a major impact in the next five years. However, demonstration projects are already underway in Canada, Spain, and the U.S. These technologies could eventually reduce the pressure on first-generation biofuels, which rely heavily on food crops and land. Overall, the biofuel industry is poised for continued expansion, though it faces both opportunities and challenges in the years ahead.
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