According to a recent report from Dow Jones, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest five-year global energy outlook, highlighting the rapid growth of biofuel production worldwide. The report notes that rising oil prices and stricter environmental regulations across countries have significantly boosted the biofuel industry. In 2005, global biofuel output reached 650,000 barrels per day—more than four times the level in 2000. By 2011, it is projected to nearly double to 1.2 million barrels per day.
The IEA also analyzed ongoing and planned biofuel projects, estimating that between 2006 and 2011, new ethanol and biodiesel capacity could reach 1 million barrels per day. However, the agency warns that some medium-term projects remain uncertain due to economic and policy challenges. Despite this, the report suggests that global biofuel production is expected to expand rapidly in the coming years, driven by supportive policies and market demand.
Brazil, the U.S., and the European Union are expected to lead the expansion of new biofuel capacity in the near future. Meanwhile, countries like Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand are also set to grow quickly, with the EU and the U.S. serving as key export markets. As a result, Brazil and the U.S., which once dominated the global ethanol market, will see their shares decline. Their combined share of the ethanol market is expected to drop from 92% in 2005 to 78% in 2008. The EU’s biodiesel production is forecasted to more than double from 2005 levels, while ethanol output is expected to rise sharply—from 14,000 to 71,000 barrels per day.
The IEA also addressed the complex relationship between biofuels, food prices, and oil prices. It noted that ethanol produced from sugarcane becomes competitive when oil prices exceed $40 per barrel, while biodiesel from animal fat requires prices above $60. For biodiesel made from other feedstocks, the threshold is even higher, at over $70 per barrel. Unless production costs fall significantly, these biofuels will continue to rely on government subsidies.
Furthermore, the report highlights that second-generation biofuels, such as cellulosic ethanol, which are often promoted by green energy advocates, are unlikely to make a major impact in the next five years. However, demonstration projects are already underway in Canada, Spain, and the U.S. While still in early stages, the development of these advanced technologies could eventually reduce the pressure on first-generation biofuels, which require large amounts of land and food crops.
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