With the landing of double-point management measures and the release of fuel-forbidden fuel truck signals, the development of new energy vehicles has become a general trend. The entire vehicle market has not yet been opened in large quantities, and the competition in the spare parts sector has been upgraded. A group of automakers are planning to build a self-contained power battery system and seize the commanding height of new energy vehicle manufacturing.
On October 24th, BMW Brilliance's Power Battery Center project in Shenyang landed. Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Ningde Timeâ€) was the supplier of battery cell batteries in this cooperation, and it used to be the entire Power battery supplier. The battery center is the third battery center in the world of BMW Group and the first in China.
"The power battery is equivalent to the internal combustion engine of a conventional fuel vehicle. The automaker certainly hopes that the core components will be in their hands." Hefei Guoxuan Hi-Tech (29.650, -0.45, -1.50%) Senior Engineer of Power Energy Co., Ltd. Yang Xulai to "China Business newspaper reporter said. Since this year, a number of vehicle manufacturers quietly began to extend the industrial chain and expanded their business scope to the power battery field. There were Dongfeng Motor (6.190, -0.05, -0.80%) Group holdings of Ningde Era, SAIC (30.890, 0.13, 0.42%) and Ningde Era, a joint-venture battery company, followed by Changan Automobile (13.410, -0.17, -1.25). %) Release "Shangri-La Plan" and so on. The reporter was informed that Beiqi New Energy, GAC New Energy and others also have plans for self-built power battery systems.
Competing for "the right to speak"
“At the beginning of 2016, when we mass-produced new energy vehicles, we almost demanded a power battery company to guarantee supply.†A person in charge of Beiqi New Energy expressed emotion. The person in charge introduced that the battery is custom-made and is generally based on the needs of the vehicle manufacturer. However, when the automaker proposes technical upgrades or partial changes, some battery companies may not have high coordination due to cost increase, and the technical aspects will be subject to the battery companies.
“Whether it is being done (self-built battery plant) or planned to be done in the future, it is mainly due to strategic considerations and cannot be controlled by the core components.†Gu Huinan, general manager of GAC New Energy Automotive, made a similar statement. "New energy vehicles are the trend of the times. Batteries are the core modules that are more sought after. If they are not considered at all, it will be very passive when the time is not enough or quality is not enough." said Gu Huinan. BMW Brilliance CEO Wei Yide also believes that the market demand for new energy vehicles is uncertain. Self-built battery centers are not only conducive to shortening the core component industry chain, but also can guarantee the autonomy and flexibility of car companies.
The core components of electric vehicles are batteries, motors and electronic control (three power). The three are equivalent to the engines and gearboxes of traditional fuel vehicles. Among them, power batteries are the most critical. In the field of new energy vehicles, it can be described as The battery is the world."
In May, SAIC Group announced the establishment of a joint venture with Ningde Power to establish two power battery companies for the development of lithium batteries and the development of battery modules and systems. The former is Ningde Times Holdings, the latter is controlled by SAIC and the two factories are already 6 Month registration completed. In July, Daimler and BAIC signed a framework agreement in Germany. The two parties will jointly invest RMB 5 billion to establish a pure electric vehicle production base and a power battery plant in Beijing. In October, Changan Automobile released the “Shangri-La Plan†to extend its industrial chain and lay out the field of power batteries. In the same month, Dongfeng Motor Group also announced that it had held the Ningde era.
In addition to grasping the discourse of the core components, self-built battery systems can also save manufacturing costs for car companies. "The cost of a power battery accounts for about 30% to 50% of the entire electric vehicle," said Cai Wei, chief technology officer of Fine Electric. The power battery is a part of the industry that is recognized as having a higher profit. Yang continued to express that from the average standard of the entire industry to estimate, the gross margin of the power battery fluctuates around 30%.
And in fact far more than that. According to the third-quarter earnings report at the end of October, profits of upstream companies of lithium batteries soared, and the net profit of more than 30 companies exceeded more than half. Taking Keheng shares (73.060, -0.84, -1.14%) (300343.SH) as an example, the net profit in the first three quarters of this year was 135 million yuan, an increase of 2217.75 percent year-on-year. The net profit in the third quarter was 74,657,200 yuan, an increase of 4201.12% over the same period of last year. At least for now, the profitability of power batteries is significantly higher than that of an average automaker. With the gradual fall of state subsidies, cost control has become a problem that car companies must solve.
PACK in
Observing the field of power batteries involved in the current vehicle manufacturers, it is not difficult to find that most of the cooperation has stopped at the batteries. From Tesla, BMW Group to SAIC, no exception. The power battery on the new energy vehicle is a battery pack assembled from a battery core, a battery case, and the like. The battery pack's assembly, design, and safety testing are called battery PACKs (hereafter referred to as "PACK"). Before 2017, the PACK referred to by the industry was mainly the design and assembly of simple battery packs, but at present it is also partially Covers the BMS (battery pack management: including ladder utilization, recycling, etc.). PACK is based on the requirements of vehicle manufacturers, targeted development of different models, with a strong custom attributes.
“PACK has become the best entry point for the car battery industry to deploy the power battery industry chain,†said Jia Xinguang, chief analyst at China Automotive Industry Consulting Development Corporation. He believes that through the mastering of BMS and PACK technologies, vehicle companies can avoid over-reliance on professional PACK companies and battery companies, and they can also grasp the safety of batteries. According to Zheng Jiatu, the deputy secretary-general of China Charging Technology Industry Alliance, according to a wide range of PACKs, if battery design, assembly, and management are combined in the best state, not only can the battery life be extended, but also the mileage of vehicles can be increased. It can greatly save the manufacturing cost, and it belongs to the core competitiveness of car enterprises in the field of batteries. They can do their own to ensure technical safety.
However, in the view of Li Ping, a software engineer at the Shanghai Engineering Technology Center and Shenzhen BAK Power Battery Co., Ltd., the vehicle manufacturer cuts in from PACK, mainly because, compared with batteries, the technical threshold of PACK is relatively low. "As far as the battery manufacturing process is concerned, their degree of difficulty is followed by batteries, BMS, and finally PACK." Li Ping told reporters. According to him, the battery technology involves electrodes, diaphragms, etc., entry level are professional qualifications for graduates and above, technical barriers are relatively high, the average car company is more difficult to do.
It is worth mentioning that, in addition to technical difficulty, OEMs may have to face the constraints of funds and scale from PACK. Zheng Jiatuo said that the simple PACK is the assembly and design, and the links involved are relatively small. The batteries need a lot of investment, involving many links in the upstream raw materials, and the capital investment is very large. "A PACK factory can be made for 30 to 50 million yuan, but as a battery core, 3 or 5 billion won't necessarily be able to invest." According to Zheng Jiatuo, if the auto factory produces a fully powered battery, the scale is also very high. It is difficult to meet the requirements of national policies. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China at the end of 2016, the requirements of the draft of the “Automotive Power Battery Industry Regulatory Conditions†were issued: The annual production capacity of lithium-ion battery cell enterprises is not less than 8 billion watt-hours, and the annual production capacity of the metal hydride nickel battery cell enterprises is not Below 100 million watt-hours, the annual output capacity of super capacitor single-unit enterprises is not less than 10 million watt-hours, and the annual production capacity of system enterprises is not less than 80,000 sets or 4 billion watt-hours.
Dynamic shuffling
Looking back at the traditional power battery market, the OEM's entry is not only a simple cake. "China's three-electric technology has not made great progress. Foreign-funded batteries have a relatively advanced technological advantage. With the subsidy, the independent brand's power battery competitiveness may be disadvantageous." Li Ping said. He said that with the intensification of market competition, if there is no price advantage in the same quality situation, or if the same price is not of high quality, the battery of its own brand will be in a very embarrassing situation.
In fact, this year's battery business days are not as good as they were in the past. In addition, the retreat of the subsidy policy also shifted the pressure of the automaker and put forward price reduction requirements for power battery companies. At the end of 2016, new subsidy standards were introduced. In addition to the vehicle's cruising range, unit load quality, energy consumption, and other rigid indicators, the new subsidy policy incorporates the requirements for battery energy density. Passenger cars must not be less than 85Wh/kg, and passenger cars should not be less than 90Wh/kg. The amount of subsidies is linked to battery capacity. This policy not only caused the power battery to shift to the high energy density and expensive ternary lithium battery, but also indirectly forced the battery company to increase the purchase cost while also reducing the price. On the other hand, due to the hot pursuit of the new energy market, raw materials such as cobalt and lithium carbonate rose sharply in the first half of the year. "At present, power battery companies are enemies, and many small businesses face enormous pressure on their survival," Yang continued.
In terms of the power battery market alone, the current domestic comparative advantages include Ningde Times, BYD (64.250, 0.93, 1.47%), Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Shenzhen BAK. According to public information, the market share of a company in the Ningde era alone reached about 30% in the first quarter of this year. According to the "China Automotive Parts Industry Development Report (2016~2017)" released jointly by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and other institutions, in 2016, BYD, CATL, Waterma and Guoxuan Hi-Tech had a market share of 62.4%. . Power battery companies show a clear two-level differentiation.
"The first wave of this boom is affecting small businesses." Zheng Jia rabbit said. He believes that with the gradual maturation of the market, the future will inevitably shift from extensive to refined, and those small enterprises that have no competitive advantage in terms of quality and price will face large-scale mergers, reorganizations or bankruptcies. It is reported that at present, there are about 150 power battery companies in China. In the past three years, more than 70 lithium-ion batteries and related companies in Sichuan, Shandong, Guangdong, and Henan have already gone bankrupt. Another diversified symbiosis has become an industry consensus. Most of the interviewees told reporters that it is impossible to completely replace the power battery company regardless of how the entire vehicle company extends its industrial chain. On the one hand, “specialization in the medical industryâ€, power battery companies have the first-mover advantage in technology and channels, on the other hand, the diversified automotive market also needs matching, gradient component suppliers. “The current market environment has spawned a lot of cooperation models. Between the battery factory and us, it's not a simple business model, nor is it the competition between the two parties. It is to use a cooperative and win-win attitude to increase the vitality of the market.†Chang’an Tan Benhong, vice president of automotive, said.
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