The growth rate of agricultural investment in the first three quarters slowed down new industries and new business forms into new investment highlights

First, the status quo analysis

(1) In the first three quarters, industrial investment grew steadily, and the contribution rate of private investment growth reached 95%.

From January to September, industrial fixed assets investment was 1,497.3 billion yuan, a nominal growth of 11.1% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 4.7 percentage points from the first half of the year, down 10 percentage points from the same period of last year, and was the lowest level since the second quarter of 2011; However, it is 4.3, 9.2 and 1.3 percentage points higher than the national level, the secondary industry and the tertiary industry. Industrial private fixed assets investment was 1,207.4 billion yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year, higher than the national private fixed assets investment by 8.3 percentage points; the growth rate dropped by 2.2 percentage points from the first half of the year, down 4.2 percentage points over the same period of last year; higher than the industrial investment growth rate of 2.5. The percentage of contribution to industrial investment growth is 95.5%, and the role of the main force is more prominent. The investment threshold of the agricultural industry is low, the demand for funds is relatively small, and the cash flow is relatively stable. Private investment has always been the main force of agricultural investment. Especially in the case of the central government's efforts to increase the policy of strong farmers, farmers and rich peasants, and some manufacturing industries to de-capacity, many private capitals have invested in the “blue ocean” of agriculture. The investment field has continued to expand and the momentum has been continuously enhanced, driving agricultural investment to maintain two years. The number of digits has increased.

(2) The contribution rate of investment in crop industry increased by 74%, and fishery investment maintained a high growth.

In the first three quarters, investment in crop farming, animal husbandry and fisheries was 835.6 billion yuan, 405.8 billion yuan and 87.5 billion yuan respectively, with investment growth rates of 16.2%, 5% and 17.6% respectively. According to the results of the monitoring of investment in the major agricultural industries [2], the investment attention in various fields has declined to varying degrees, and the investment in corn, pig, tea, cotton and vegetables has been highly concerned. Affected by factors such as the adjustment of crop production structure, the growth of investment in bulk agricultural products has slowed down, and the overall investment growth of the crop industry has continued to slow down, down 4.7 and 16 percentage points respectively over the first half of the year and the same period of last year, but the leading role in the contribution to industrial investment growth remains. Obviously, the growth contribution rate was 74%, which was 6.1 and 0.9 percentage points higher than the first half and the same period of last year. The growth rate of animal husbandry investment continued to fall, only 42% in the same period of last year, and fell to a low level since 2014. Under the background of increasing environmental protection pressure on livestock farming and accelerating industrial transformation and upgrading, a large number of small and medium-sized farms are not up to standard due to environmental protection. It was related to factors such as closure, new capacity expansion and recovery period. For example, as of August 9, the 431 banned area livestock and poultry farms (households) supervised by the Sichuan Provincial Government have closed 410, with a shutdown rate of 95.1%. The growth rate of fishery investment remained at a high level, 0.5 percentage points higher than the same period of last year, higher than 5.8 percentage points of industrial investment, and the contribution of investment growth gradually increased.

(3) Investment in the western and northeast regions continued to accelerate, and the distribution of investment became increasingly balanced.

From January to September, industrial investment in the four major regions of eastern, central, western and northeastern China was 370.8 billion yuan, 435.4 billion yuan, 574.9 billion yuan and 116.2 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 9.1%, 12.5%, 31.6% and 26 respectively. %, "East to the west rose" "East slow west fast" trend highlighted. In the past two years, due to the structural reform of agricultural supply side, industrial transfer and transformation and upgrading, industrial poverty alleviation and other investment-friendly policies, the investment vitality of grain, vegetable, animal husbandry and characteristic agricultural products production in the western and northeastern regions has been effectively stimulated. It has gradually become a gathering area for financial funds to support agriculture and social capital to enter agriculture. Among them, the investment scale and growth level of the western region continued to lead other regions, with investment accounting for 38.4%, a growth rate of 31.6%, 7.1 percentage points higher than the same period of last year, and the growth contribution rate was 87.9%, 2.4 times the level of the same period last year; investment in the Northeast The growth rate was 26%, which was 7.1 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. It has maintained a relatively fast growth level since the quarter and is 14.2 percentage points higher than the national average.

(4) The funds are in place and the project is completed and put into production, which continues to be better than the national level.

In the first three quarters, the investment in industrial investment reached 1,406.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the first half of the year, 3.6 percentage points higher than the national average, and the capital availability rate reached 46.9%, an increase of 11.7 percentage points over the first half of the year. . In addition to self-raised funds, the growth rate of investment in various types of funds, such as state budget funds, loans, and bonds, has increased to varying degrees. Among them, self-raised funds amounted to 198.1 billion yuan, up 6%, down 1.3 percentage points from the first half of the year. The budgetary fund was 71.9 billion yuan, an increase of 6.3%. The growth rate was 5.4 percentage points higher than that of the first half of the year. Domestic loans were 65.6 billion yuan, up 16.9%, and the growth rate was 4.7 percentage points higher than the first half. On the whole, the scale of state budgetary funds and financial support is still small, and the level of agricultural investment funds needs to be improved. The intensity of guiding and encouraging social capital to invest in agriculture needs to be further enhanced. From the construction and new construction projects, the number of industrial construction projects in the first three quarters was 47,761, of which 35,326 were newly started, up 7.5%, down 3.3 percentage points from the first half of the year; 23,442 were put into production, and the project was completed and the yield was 49.1. %, an increase of 16.6 percentage points over the first half of the year; investment delivery utilization rate was 58.9%, an increase of 8 percentage points over the first half of the year.

(5) The financing of agricultural capital market has remained stable, and more attention has been paid to the fields of seed industry and agricultural product processing.

In recent years, the capital market has gradually become an important financing channel for agricultural enterprises to expand their business scale and extend the industrial chain. According to the data of the investment group, 42 cases of investment and financing in the agricultural sector in the third quarter, the transaction amount was 1.66 billion US dollars, and the financing scale increased by 1.2% over the same period of last year. From the perspective of financing methods, M&A is the main way for agriculture to raise funds through the capital market. In the third quarter, the transaction amount was 1.216 billion US dollars, accounting for 73.3% of the total financing. The investment and financing projects are mainly livestock and poultry varieties and feed processing, which are among the higher profit levels in the agricultural industry chain. On September 11, CITIC Agriculture and Shounong Co., Ltd. jointly completed the acquisition of 100% equity of British Cherry Valley Farm Co., Ltd., which is a sub-national acquisition of animal breeding industry in China, which will help to enhance China's discourse in global seed industry. right.

(6) The investment potential of “Five Districts and One Park” is huge, and new industries and new industries have become new investment highlights.

Driven by the accelerated upgrading of agricultural industrial structure, the integration of the development of the first, second and third industries, and the “Internet + modern agriculture”, the national modern agricultural demonstration zone, the grain production functional zone, the important agricultural product production protection zone, the characteristic agricultural product advantage zone, and the sustainable agriculture The development of the “Experimental Demonstration Zone” and the National Modern Agricultural Industrial Park have attracted a lot of attention. “Five Districts and One Park” involves the delineation, leveling, transformation and large-scale mechanical equipment investment and infrastructure construction of more than 1 billion mu of land. It not only has systematic planning and design, but also has detailed engineering arrangements to initially estimate the scale of direct investment. Over one trillion yuan, effectively driving large-scale indirect investment, has become an important force to promote agricultural and rural economic growth. At the same time, new industries such as leisure agriculture and e-commerce have gradually become new directions and new areas for investment. On September 22nd, the National Functional Agriculture Science and Technology Park-Cangzhou Higher Education Science and Technology City Functional Agricultural Science and Technology Park Project held a signing ceremony with a planned investment of 200 million yuan, marking the city's new high-yield agriculture and green agriculture. era. On May 18, Jiangsu Yonghong Group and Nanjing Liuhe District officially signed the “China Yun Kitchen Global Industrial Park Strategic Cooperation Agreement” with a total investment of 3 billion yuan to promote the organic integration of agriculture and new retail, tourism, pension and sports industries. .

(7) The exhibition promotion activities are all blooming, and the platform effect is more obvious.

From January to September, more than 70 agricultural festivals and festivals were held throughout the country, and about 70 agricultural product fairs, agricultural project promotion meetings, agricultural investment fairs (matchmaking meetings, investment promotion meetings) were held, and entertainment, gardening, and exhibitions were held. The integration of creative design and other elements into agriculture has realized the mutual promotion of agriculture, tourism and leisure, cultural creativity, modern circulation and other industries, and has become an important platform for attracting social capital investment. Among them, the 15th China International Agricultural Trade Fair attracted nearly 200 buyers from 46 countries and regions including the United States and Russia through 18 major pragmatic events to achieve on-site trade volume of 22.7 billion yuan. With an amount of 679 million yuan and online sales of 1.46 billion yuan, the popularity and influence of the "Agricultural Fair" will be further enhanced.

Second, the trend is prejudged

Based on various factors such as “three rural” strategy, policy orientation, and price cycle, it is expected that agricultural investment in the fourth quarter and in the next period will show a steady increase in total volume, more focus, and a gradual improvement.

(1) The report of the 19th National Congress reaffirmed the important position of “agriculture, rural areas and farmers”, and agricultural investment will maintain steady growth in the medium and long term.

The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly stated that "the implementation of the strategy of rural revitalization" "the problem of agricultural and rural peasants is a fundamental issue concerning the national economy and the people's livelihood, and adheres to the priority development of agriculture and rural areas" "keeping the land contracting relationship stable and long-lasting, the second round of land contracting After the expiration of the extension, it will be extended for another 30 years. "Promoting the integration and development of rural one, two, and three industries, supporting and encouraging farmers' employment innovation, and broadening the channels for increasing revenues." These have set a position for the work of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" and gave farmers a "reassuring heart". It also indicates that agriculture will remain a key area of ​​financial investment in the coming period, and the total investment is expected to maintain steady growth.

(2) The green development of agriculture has become the focus of policy, and the direction of agricultural investment will be more focused in the coming period.

Recently, the State Council Office issued the "Opinions on Innovating System and Mechanism to Promote Green Development of Agriculture". This is a document issued by the Party Central Committee on the green development of agriculture. It is also a programmatic document guiding the green development of agriculture in the current and future period. At the same time, the policy system and institutional arrangements for green development of agriculture are being constructed. Specific measures such as “one control, two reductions and three basics” and five major actions for agricultural green development continue to be carried out, and the goal orientation is further expanded and extended, and the support policies are more detailed and practical. It will promote governments at all levels to increase financial investment in green development of agriculture, and effectively guide social capital to invest in areas such as agricultural resource conservation, waste resource utilization, animal disease purification and ecological protection and restoration, and promote the development of agricultural development concepts and agricultural investment. .

(3) The agricultural product market is gradually picking up, and the recent confidence in agricultural investment is expected to be boosted.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the supply of major agricultural products in the first three quarters was abundant, and the total price of agricultural producers nationwide fell by 4.5% over the same period of the previous year. Since the second half of the year, the prices of major agricultural products have gradually rebounded, and the market has rebounded significantly. Among them, the price of live pigs began to rebound in July, with a cumulative increase of 7% in three months; the price of eggs in the main producing provinces rose for four consecutive months, and the average price in September was 9.15 yuan/kg, up 8.2% year-on-year; beef, lamb, raw milk Prices rose moderately, rising by 0.9%, 2.2% and 1.5% respectively. With the continued rise in prices of major agricultural products and increased income from agricultural production, agricultural investment confidence will be boosted and it is expected to reverse the situation of continued decline in recent times.

Third, the relevant recommendations

(1) Further increase the investment in financial support for agriculture.

Adhere to the increase in the total amount of investment in agricultural construction, and optimize the structure and integration, and continue to send strong signals to the society to benefit farmers and farmers. Full implementation of the "National Agricultural Modernization Plan (2016-2020)", launching major construction projects such as smart agriculture, agricultural product quality and safety, and promotion of export of superior agricultural products, and increasing high-standard farmland, modern seed industry upgrading project, and northeast black land protection pilot Such as the implementation of the project, effectively improve the basic conditions of agriculture, continue to consolidate the foundation of agricultural development, and provide a better policy environment for social capital to invest in agriculture.

(2) Implementing various agricultural investment support policies.

Moderately increase the land use standards for agricultural facilities, and clearly increase the amount of rural collective construction land used for modern agricultural construction. In the annual new construction land use index, a certain proportion is used to meet the demand for new agricultural business entities. We will expand the pilot program for agricultural disasters, gradually include labor costs in the scope of compensation, and innovate income insurance, price insurance, and insurance/futures insurance products to further improve insurance protection. We will improve the rural financial support mechanism, promote commercial finance, cooperative finance, policy finance, and microfinance organizations to increase the proportion of supporting agriculture, expand the scope of agriculture-related businesses, and effectively meet the financial needs of various entities.

(3) Strengthening the service guarantee for private capital to invest in agriculture.

We will deepen the reform of the agricultural administrative examination and approval system, further streamline the examination and approval procedures for agricultural construction projects, and loosen the burden of various types of investment in agriculture, and stimulate the effective investment of the people. Strengthen investment policy, agricultural technology promotion, agricultural meteorology, rural finance, skills training, project needs and other agricultural information services, research and release the agricultural investment climate index, and guide private capital into agriculture in an orderly manner. Give play to the role of the information reporting system of the new agricultural business subject, peer-to-peer docking credit, insurance, training, production operations, product marketing five services, and promote agricultural management concepts and governance methods innovation.